It was found that the winter NAO index varied in the same way as the mean annual water level variation (Figure 6) in the lagoons under study in 1961–2008. The correlation

analysis showed a positive correlation between the winter NAO index and the annual water level variations in the lagoons. Correlation coefficients between the NAO index and water level variations at Klaipėda/Memel, Baltiysk/Pillau and Zingst were 0.58, 0.62 and 0.43 respectively, with a statistical significance of 99.9%. This suggests that the changes in air mass dynamics in the North Atlantic are partly reflected in the interannual fluctuations of the water level on the coasts and in the lagoons of the south-eastern Baltic Sea. The click here present-day water level variations on Baltic Sea coasts are determined by three main factors: the post-glacial uplifting of the Fennoscandian land mass, the global rise in eustatic water level, and the atmospheric circulation. Highly influential in this respect is the mesoscale atmospheric variation of circulation, which determines the air masses flowing into the North Atlantic region, as well as the formation and development of cyclones and anticyclones. The predominance of westerly inflows air masses leads to higher water levels in the eastern Baltic. When comparing the long-term tendencies in water

level Ribociclib chemical structure rise in the Baltic lagoons, we see that the rate of this rise increases as we move from the southern to the south-eastern shores: it is approximately 4 mm year−1 in the CL and VL, but only 1 mm year−1 in the DZBC. However, the structure of seasonal water level variations remains the same, independently of the average climate scale period, and the mean monthly level increased by 3–10 cm in nearly all

months. On the basis of an analysis of seasonal variations of monthly averaged water level, we see that the trend in annual mean water levels is influenced by high water level in the January–March months. Some of the most important factors affecting the long-term mean water level Buspirone HCl change in the coastal lagoons on the southern and south-eastern Baltic are land uplift, the rise in the global eustatic mean sea level, the prevailing wind with respect to the shore, and changes in freshwater gain. The eustatic change of sea level has a global influence, whereas tectonic movements can change the response on a regional scale. According to recent investigations, a land subsidence of –1 mm year−1 (Vestøl 2006) for southern and southeastern Baltic shores should be taken into consideration when calculating the absolute water level rise in these lagoons. If we take these trends into account when calculating water level rises for longer periods (1937–2008, Table 2), land subsidence practically cancels out any climatically induced water level changes in the DZBC, but not in the CL or VL, where the trend is strongly pronounced.